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I've read your blog with interest over the past few days. Excellent analysis, and writing! Thank you for sharing.
I found this post interesting. Who are these 'discretionary' skilled 10-bagger hunters? I've worked in the industry awhile and I've yet to hear of a skilled small-cap investor who makes 50%+ returns consistently (which is required for a 10-bagger in 5 years, as you've defined). I'd sincerely like to know, as maybe we can learn something from them. Have you read Phelp's book 100-to-1? I wonder if there's valuable lessons there that can be empirically tested?

Yuval Taylor

Thanks for your compliments!

I haven't read Phelps's book, I'm afraid. But I worry that looking for ten-baggers or hundred-baggers may be a rather poor investment strategy (a message that may have been implicit in my post). Too often would-be investors focus on what they can learn from past winners without looking at the thousands of losers that they might have chosen instead at the time. The best way to develop a winning strategy is to look at the market as a whole and figure out which stocks are most likely to appreciate, not to cherry-pick winning stocks without considering what they have in common with the losers.

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